Wednesday, May 16, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160838
SWOD48
SPC AC 160837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF UPPER TROUGH/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DISAGREE ON AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD
ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

.DARROW.. 05/16/2007

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