SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161656
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-161800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SE PA...MD...NRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161656Z - 161800Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS NRN NJ...SE PA...MD AND NCNTRL VA. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A
WW WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR OVER MD AREA NWD...AND MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS VA THIS AFTERNOON.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL PA AND WV
WITH A THERMAL AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
F. AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM SE PA EXTENDING
SWD INTO NCNTRL VA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000 TO 1500
J/KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOCALLY STEEPER AROUND THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SCNTRL PA AND WV MOVES EWD...NEW CELLS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS STORMS SPREAD QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
41587515 40967406 40177488 39437573 38297692 37337837
37447926 37827970 38517907 39537806 40607684
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