SWODY2
SPC AC 161728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..FLORIDA...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
ON THURSDAY ACROSS SRN FL...WITH ACTIVITY ALSO DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF NRN INTO CENTRAL FL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH THIS REGION
BENEATH WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW MUCAPES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-30 DEGREES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.
..SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN SWD TO NRN BAJA REGION...WITH MODELS INDICATING
THESE FEATURES MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITHIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODELS
SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK AND THUS LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN NM/FAR
W TX SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES GIVEN OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY FORECAST.
FARTHER N...PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE CENTRAL/
NRN HIGH PLAINS ATOP STRONG SURFACE HEATING RESULTING IN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ASCENT WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD
SUGGEST SOME TSTM POTENTIAL. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TSTM
INITIATION...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN NWD EXTENT OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AND SECOND IMPULSE
NOW LOCATED OVER ERN DAKOTAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE IN PHASE ON
THURSDAY AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY FROM
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.
.PETERS.. 05/16/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment