SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161746
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161746Z - 161915Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DESPITE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...RATHER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 1740Z...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROKEN LINE OF
TSTMS ROUGHLY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LFT ENEWD TO AROUND 40 NE
MOB. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE SLOWED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF HEATING
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S HAVE DRIVEN MLCAPES
TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS INTERACTS
WITH THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
LIGHT FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN /PER REGIONAL VAD
PROFILERS/. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION BEYOND PULSE-TYPE.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A LINEAR
CLUSTER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
.GRAMS.. 05/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
31708599 31148512 30498558 30358628 30298781 29978863
29348940 29159047 29489126 30359115 30918953 31428766
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