SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161843
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-162015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...CT...MA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...
VALID 161843Z - 162015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SRN NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW OVER ERN NY
AND WRN MA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWWD EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS SRN MA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW
INTO ERN PA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
STILL HAS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING
NEWD ACROSS WRN MA AND NRN CT MAY INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING LOCALLY MORE INTENSE. OTHERWISE...NEW ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SRN NY AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN
MA AND WRN CT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON WSR-88D VWPS AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGE WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...
42937328 43057290 42727204 41867153 41247173 40687332
41147433 41937450
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