MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0817

ACUS11 KWNS 161557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161557
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-161730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...SRN NY...FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161557Z - 161730Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND...SRN NY..FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN NY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD INTO WRN PA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW
ACROSS NRN AND ERN CT. SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT...A
THERMAL AXIS EXISTS AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F.
AS A RESULT...A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY EXISTS IN SRN
NY...CT AND MA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1200 TO 1600 J/KG
ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
CNTRL NY AND NCNTRL PA MOVES EWD...CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY
INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY...LOCALLY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ORGANIZE WITHIN
OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.

.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

41067381 40577471 41127556 42067542 42717492 42917421
42897313 42827238 42667187 42457131 41937139 41567170
41457252

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.