SWOD48
SPC AC 071000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIKELY
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST PER 00Z GEFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/STEADILY
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A WARM/MOIST
EARLY SEASON AIRMASS...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. WHILE A WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE...SOME MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND UNKNOWNS REGARDING MOISTURE
QUALITY INTO THE MIDWEST PRECLUDES 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX.
THEREAFTER...WITH THE CENTRAL STATES PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...THE PRIMARY TSTM
POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO TX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR DAY 5/WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT
THIS JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE...AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..GUYER.. 03/07/2009
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