Saturday, March 7, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0197

ACUS11 KWNS 070644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070644
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070644Z - 070845Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF IT STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NERN KS AND SPREAD INTO NRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF E-W
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO ALONG NOSE OF STRONG
LLJ...50-60KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
ONGOING RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND MORE MATURE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN MO. MUCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...ATOP
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
FORCE MOISTURE INTO ERN KS/MO. WITH TIME RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 COINCIDENT WITH WARM
FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HAIL.

..DARROW.. 03/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39559753 40249473 40389245 39169207 38869461 38519720
39559753

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