SWODY3
SPC AC 070829
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG/PERTURBED SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST. MASS
FIELDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
SECTOR LIKELY TO STEADILY RETURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX/OK AND EVENTUALLY KS AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX/OK/KS DURING THE DAY...THE PERTURBED
SUBTROPICAL STREAM/POTENTIAL SPEED MAX AND POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING BENEATH A CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...AROUND 60/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING. COMBINED
WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WELL-ORGANIZED SURFACE BASED TSTMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE.
IN ALL...A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO LEADS TO HEIGHTENED
UNCERTAINTY/REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS DIURNALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...
AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY ELEVATED
MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION NOCTURNALLY.
..GUYER.. 03/07/2009
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