MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 040532
FFGMPD
KSZ000-OKZ000-040830-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0192
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 040530Z - 040830Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALLY TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCLUDING SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OVER SERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM AND ESP INTO S CNTRL
AREAS OF KS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND TO
THE NORTH OF A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM NERN NM AND OUT
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND GENERALLY EAST NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER.

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE AND SOME SUBTLE
VEERING OF THE SRLY LOW LVL JET ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
ATTM...WITH ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 30 KTS INTERACTING WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A
WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT INVOF THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND BECOME ORIENTED
GENERALLY W/E TO THE NORTH OF THE BNDRY. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND EVEN HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH
OVER CNTRL OK WERE NOTED LAST HOUR.

THE MEAN LYR FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE BNDRY...AND RATHER
WEAK...ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGESTING A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.

RAINFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR AND WITH THE
SLOW-MOVEMENT AND CONCERN FOR SOME W/E ORIENTED TRAINING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 37159539 36999648 37129779 37299850 37419913 37459937
37489958 37500033 37420146 37750189 38180166 38330108
38459996 38849841 38689693 38379603 37849528 37159539

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