DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040555
SWODY2
SPC AC 040554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEB...ERN
WY...WRN SD...SERN MT AND NERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM SRN MN AND IA MON MORNING
SEWD INTO NRN IL BY 00Z AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION WITH EARLY STORMS LIKELY. TO THE
S...ANOTHER AREA OF EARLY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM ERN KS INTO NERN
OK...SRN MO...AND NRN AR. BOTH AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME FROM MN SWD INTO KS.

TO THE W...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN MT WITH LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CO/KS...BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
FAVOR AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS.

LATER IN THE DAY...A MORE INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...WHICH WILL ENHANCE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME. A
SECONDARY BATCH OF SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN
MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND.

...SERN MT...WRN SD AND NEB...ERN WY....NERN CO...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL FROM
SERN MT INTO WRN NEB. OTHER HAIL AND WIND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SD AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET
ARE MAXIMIZED WITH A SEVERE MCS LIKELY.

...SRN MN...WRN WI...IA...NRN IL...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY STORMS...AREAS OF HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ELONGATE
HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL. DUE TO WEAK FORCING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.

...KS INTO MO...
EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS
INTO SWRN MO AND HEATING SW OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT
OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS WARM SWLY FLOW IMPINGES ON
THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE HOT SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AREAS OF HAIL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW THESE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 08/04/2013

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