SWODY1
SPC AC 101231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN
MT...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...
..PA/NY/VT/MA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS COMPACT UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ARE LIKELY. RATHER STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF PA/NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL PA...AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF MD/WV/VA. RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO AID IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MA AND VT
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
..ORE/ID/MT...
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET MAX IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ORE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER
TOP OF RIDGE INTO ID AND MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
REGION WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
ORE/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. BACKED AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE ND BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER TX THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH RATHER STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE LESSENED ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POCKET OF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS REMAINS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX GULF COAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL TX BY MID
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS OVER THIS AREA.
..MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
AR/MS/LA AND NORTHWARD TOWARD STL. AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WEAK CAP WILL AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OVER AR...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 1500 J/KG WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MULTICELL STORMS TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG...WITH A RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.
.HART/JEWELL.. 05/10/2007
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