ACUS11 KWNS 041709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041709
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN-NERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041709Z - 041845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO WRN-NERN LA. ISOLATED THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SWWD
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO SRN TX. ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER W TX IS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN E-CNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
SERN TX INTO NERN LA...PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 60S. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM...MODIFIED
12Z RAOBS YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW
REGIME WILL FAVOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SPEEDS AND SHEAR.
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING
MAY ALLOW A FEW MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS TO PULSE UPWARDS IN
INTENSITY AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..GARNER/MEAD.. 12/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 32289093 31209165 29709385 29459467 29659520 30109547
30809534 31639447 32959228 32289093
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Tuesday, December 4, 2012
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 041613
SWODY1
SPC AC 041611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO
PARTS OF DEEP S TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS A LOW-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE FEATURE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER ERN OK AS OF MID MORNING WILL WEAKEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
SEWD PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM
AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM WRN TX INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS SWWD INTO THE TX
HILL COUNTRY AS OF 15Z WILL CONTINUE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
...MIDDLE TX COAST INTO DEEP S TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS /I.E.
LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 12-14 G PER KG/ BENEATH MODESTLY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. WHEN COMBINED WITH
LOCAL CLOUD BREAKS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CORRIDORS OF
MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
ATTENDANT TO W TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LEAD TO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCED. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THAT ACROSS TX /I.E. MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J PER KG/...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 12/04/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 041611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO
PARTS OF DEEP S TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS A LOW-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE FEATURE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER ERN OK AS OF MID MORNING WILL WEAKEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
SEWD PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM
AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM WRN TX INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS SWWD INTO THE TX
HILL COUNTRY AS OF 15Z WILL CONTINUE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
...MIDDLE TX COAST INTO DEEP S TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS /I.E.
LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 12-14 G PER KG/ BENEATH MODESTLY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. WHEN COMBINED WITH
LOCAL CLOUD BREAKS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CORRIDORS OF
MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
ATTENDANT TO W TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LEAD TO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCED. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THAT ACROSS TX /I.E. MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J PER KG/...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 12/04/2012
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KPQR [041533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KPQR 041533
LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
733 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 11 N FLORENCE 44.15N 124.10W
12/04/2012 LANE OR BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN INTO POWERLINE, 11 MILES NORTH OF FLORENCE, OR
CLOSED HIGHWAY 101.
&&
$$
TW
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LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
733 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 11 N FLORENCE 44.15N 124.10W
12/04/2012 LANE OR BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN INTO POWERLINE, 11 MILES NORTH OF FLORENCE, OR
CLOSED HIGHWAY 101.
&&
$$
TW
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KTFX [041512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 041512
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
812 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0717 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M63 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
812 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0717 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M63 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [041510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 041510
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
810 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0737 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M62 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
62 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
810 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0737 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M62 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
62 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [041509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 041509
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
809 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M56 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 40 TO 56 MPH SINCE 530 AM AT THE
DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
809 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M56 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 40 TO 56 MPH SINCE 530 AM AT THE
DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [041507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 041507
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
806 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M63 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
806 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M63 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [041505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 041505
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
805 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0617 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
805 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0617 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/04/2012 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KPIH [041437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPIH 041437
LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
737 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0732 AM SNOW HAILEY 43.51N 114.30W
12/04/2012 E1.0 INCH BLAINE ID PUBLIC
ONE INCH SNOW THIS MORNING AND STILL SNOWING AT THIS
TIME.
&&
$$
RSURVICK
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LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
737 AM MST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0732 AM SNOW HAILEY 43.51N 114.30W
12/04/2012 E1.0 INCH BLAINE ID PUBLIC
ONE INCH SNOW THIS MORNING AND STILL SNOWING AT THIS
TIME.
&&
$$
RSURVICK
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KMFR [041338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 041338
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
538 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0535 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
12/04/2012 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
7.5 HOUR ACCUMULATION
&&
$$
BUNKER
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
538 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0535 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
12/04/2012 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
7.5 HOUR ACCUMULATION
&&
$$
BUNKER
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KGRR [041338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 041338
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.22W
12/03/2012 M45 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST AT MUSKEGON ASOS.
&&
$$
HOVING
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
838 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.22W
12/03/2012 M45 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST AT MUSKEGON ASOS.
&&
$$
HOVING
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 041253
SWODY1
SPC AC 041251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN
ONTARIO THAT IS PROJECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BEFORE EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NERN STATES
BY EARLY WED MORNING. A SEPARATE SRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...AND NRN GULF. A SFC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPOSITE ERN/S-CNTRL-CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD/SWD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
EXTEND FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NW
GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING.
...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN TX...NRN/WRN LA...SRN AR...WRN MS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT OVER NRN AR WILL LIKELY BE
STEERED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALLER IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH. THROUGH MID-DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE SRN FLANKS OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA/CONFLUENCE THAT LEADS THE FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN AR INTO SRN TX.
THIS WILL OCCURS AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING PREFRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH 20-30 KT OF 500-MB FLOW...DEEP SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS LIKELY BEING THE
PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WINDS/HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVING EWD/SEWD WHILE
WEAKENING DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/04/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 041251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN
ONTARIO THAT IS PROJECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BEFORE EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NERN STATES
BY EARLY WED MORNING. A SEPARATE SRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...AND NRN GULF. A SFC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPOSITE ERN/S-CNTRL-CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD/SWD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
EXTEND FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NW
GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING.
...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN TX...NRN/WRN LA...SRN AR...WRN MS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT OVER NRN AR WILL LIKELY BE
STEERED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALLER IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH. THROUGH MID-DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE SRN FLANKS OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA/CONFLUENCE THAT LEADS THE FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN AR INTO SRN TX.
THIS WILL OCCURS AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING PREFRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH 20-30 KT OF 500-MB FLOW...DEEP SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS LIKELY BEING THE
PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WINDS/HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVING EWD/SEWD WHILE
WEAKENING DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/04/2012
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KPQR [041252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS56 KPQR 041252
LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 22 WSW YAQUINA HEAD 44.60N 124.50W
12/03/2012 M63.00 MPH PZZ275 OR BUOY
BUOY 46050 LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT. MAX GUST OF 54
KT. SEAS PEAKED AT 26 FT AT 3 AM PST.
0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W LINCOLN CITY 44.98N 124.09W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH PZZ255 OR MESONET
0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AWOS
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH. AT THE NEWPORT AIRPORT - KONP.
0136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N NEWPORT 44.69N 124.06W
12/04/2012 M63.00 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE COAST AT SCHOONER POINT.
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
12/04/2012 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WSW PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.97W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH.
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M61.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL
BPANET STATION.
0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M84.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
YAQUINA BRIDGE OBSERVATION. SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKED AT 63
MPH.
0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GARIBALDI 45.55N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M73.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 57 MPH. SITE ID TLB03.
0227 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW LEBANON 44.52N 123.00W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH LINN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
0240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW FLORENCE 44.01N 124.12W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH LANE OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 53 MPH. SITE ID FCGO3
0245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
12/04/2012 M59.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 22 WSW YAQUINA HEAD 44.60N 124.50W
12/03/2012 M63.00 MPH PZZ275 OR BUOY
BUOY 46050 LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT. MAX GUST OF 54
KT. SEAS PEAKED AT 26 FT AT 3 AM PST.
0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W LINCOLN CITY 44.98N 124.09W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH PZZ255 OR MESONET
0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AWOS
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH. AT THE NEWPORT AIRPORT - KONP.
0136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N NEWPORT 44.69N 124.06W
12/04/2012 M63.00 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE COAST AT SCHOONER POINT.
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
12/04/2012 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WSW PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.97W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH.
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M61.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL
BPANET STATION.
0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M84.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
YAQUINA BRIDGE OBSERVATION. SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKED AT 63
MPH.
0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GARIBALDI 45.55N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M73.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 57 MPH. SITE ID TLB03.
0227 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW LEBANON 44.52N 123.00W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH LINN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
0240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW FLORENCE 44.01N 124.12W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH LANE OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 53 MPH. SITE ID FCGO3
0245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
12/04/2012 M59.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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KPQR [041251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KPQR 041251
LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
451 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 22 WSW YAQUINA HEAD 44.60N 124.50W
12/03/2012 M63.00 MPH PZZ275 OR BUOY
BUOY 46050 LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT. MAX GUST OF 54
KT. SEAS PEAKED AT 26 FT AT 3 AM PST.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
451 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 22 WSW YAQUINA HEAD 44.60N 124.50W
12/03/2012 M63.00 MPH PZZ275 OR BUOY
BUOY 46050 LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT. MAX GUST OF 54
KT. SEAS PEAKED AT 26 FT AT 3 AM PST.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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KPQR [041243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KPQR 041243
LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
443 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W LINCOLN CITY 44.98N 124.09W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH PZZ255 OR MESONET
0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AWOS
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH. AT THE NEWPORT AIRPORT - KONP.
0136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N NEWPORT 44.69N 124.06W
12/04/2012 M63.00 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE COAST AT SCHOONER POINT.
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
12/04/2012 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WSW PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.97W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH.
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M61.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL
BPANET STATION.
0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M84.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
YAQUINA BRIDGE OBSERVATION. SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKED AT 63
MPH.
0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GARIBALDI 45.55N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M73.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 57 MPH. SITE ID TLB03.
0227 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW LEBANON 44.52N 123.00W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH LINN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
0240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW FLORENCE 44.01N 124.12W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH LANE OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 53 MPH. SITE ID FCGO3
0245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
12/04/2012 M59.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
443 AM PST TUE DEC 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W LINCOLN CITY 44.98N 124.09W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH PZZ255 OR MESONET
0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AWOS
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH. AT THE NEWPORT AIRPORT - KONP.
0136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N NEWPORT 44.69N 124.06W
12/04/2012 M63.00 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE COAST AT SCHOONER POINT.
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
12/04/2012 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WSW PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.97W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH.
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M61.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL
BPANET STATION.
0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
12/04/2012 M84.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
YAQUINA BRIDGE OBSERVATION. SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKED AT 63
MPH.
0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GARIBALDI 45.55N 123.92W
12/04/2012 M73.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 57 MPH. SITE ID TLB03.
0227 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW LEBANON 44.52N 123.00W
12/04/2012 M71.00 MPH LINN OR TRAINED SPOTTER
0240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW FLORENCE 44.01N 124.12W
12/04/2012 M69.00 MPH LANE OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 53 MPH. SITE ID FCGO3
0245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
12/04/2012 M59.00 MPH CLATSOP OR MESONET
SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.
&&
$$
KDONOFRI
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 040949
SWOD48
SPC AC 040948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN.
12-9/...BUT THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR. OVERALL...IT REMAINS
CLEAR BASED ON MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THAT THE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERN
IN GENERAL IS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY SCENARIO...AND THUS ANY ATTEMPT
AT A CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY TENUOUS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD /I.E. DAYS 4-6/...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE GENERAL OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF TX/OK AND THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AREA AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. IN
ADDITION...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE
REGION...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS WHAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW-END/ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT BEST...NO
THREAT AREAS /IMPLYING 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY/ WILL BE INTRODUCED
THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 040948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN.
12-9/...BUT THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR. OVERALL...IT REMAINS
CLEAR BASED ON MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THAT THE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERN
IN GENERAL IS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY SCENARIO...AND THUS ANY ATTEMPT
AT A CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY TENUOUS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD /I.E. DAYS 4-6/...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE GENERAL OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF TX/OK AND THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AREA AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. IN
ADDITION...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE
REGION...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS WHAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW-END/ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT BEST...NO
THREAT AREAS /IMPLYING 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY/ WILL BE INTRODUCED
THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 040819
SWODY3
SPC AC 040818
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD OVER
THE CONUS...AS THE GENERAL WLY/WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD TAKES ON
INCREASED -- BUT STILL BROAD -- CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AS SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER
THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FRONT. ANY THUNDER THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED TO FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL PARTS OF
GA/SC...NEAR THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRIOR FRONT STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 040818
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD OVER
THE CONUS...AS THE GENERAL WLY/WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD TAKES ON
INCREASED -- BUT STILL BROAD -- CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AS SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER
THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FRONT. ANY THUNDER THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED TO FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL PARTS OF
GA/SC...NEAR THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRIOR FRONT STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 040649
SWODY2
SPC AC 040648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES CROSSING THE ERN U.S. TOWARD THE WRN
ATLANTIC...A BROAD ZONE OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC/WLY FLOW WILL EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND ADJACENT NRN CONUS...WHILE A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WRN ATLANTIC IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS ERN FRONT -- WHICH WILL TRAIL WSWWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES --
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 040648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES CROSSING THE ERN U.S. TOWARD THE WRN
ATLANTIC...A BROAD ZONE OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC/WLY FLOW WILL EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND ADJACENT NRN CONUS...WHILE A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WRN ATLANTIC IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS ERN FRONT -- WHICH WILL TRAIL WSWWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES --
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
..GOSS.. 12/04/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 040539
SWODY1
SPC AC 040537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL BE DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN TX TUE
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD ACROSS ERN TX...LA AND MS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
...SERN TX INTO LA...WRN MS...SRN AR...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM CNTRL TX INTO AR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO EXIST. WIND
PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WEAK SELY SFC WINDS
BENEATH W TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. BOTH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
EVOLVE ALONG AND PROPAGATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/04/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 040537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL BE DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN TX TUE
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD ACROSS ERN TX...LA AND MS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
...SERN TX INTO LA...WRN MS...SRN AR...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM CNTRL TX INTO AR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO EXIST. WIND
PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WEAK SELY SFC WINDS
BENEATH W TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. BOTH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
EVOLVE ALONG AND PROPAGATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/04/2012
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Monday, December 3, 2012
KTFX [040343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 040343
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SITE
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SITE
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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KTFX [040339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 040339
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
839 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/03/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
839 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/03/2012 M59 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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KUNR [031928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 031928
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1228 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1156 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/03/2012 M42.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS LEMMON 45.94N 102.16W
12/03/2012 M43.00 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET
AT SDSU SITE.
&&
$$
MSMITH
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1228 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1156 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/03/2012 M42.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS LEMMON 45.94N 102.16W
12/03/2012 M43.00 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET
AT SDSU SITE.
&&
$$
MSMITH
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KTFX [031915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031915
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1214 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
12/03/2012 M40 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM 1045 AM TO 1145 AM
&&
$$
BLANK
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1214 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
12/03/2012 M40 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM 1045 AM TO 1145 AM
&&
$$
BLANK
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KBOU [031913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KBOU 031913
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1213 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1247 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LYONS 40.22N 105.27W
12/03/2012 M67.00 MPH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0805 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LYONS 40.22N 105.27W
12/02/2012 M74.00 MPH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WFO BOU
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1213 PM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1247 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LYONS 40.22N 105.27W
12/03/2012 M67.00 MPH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0805 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LYONS 40.22N 105.27W
12/02/2012 M74.00 MPH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WFO BOU
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KPIH [031829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPIH 031829
LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1128 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1127 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
12/03/2012 E0.77 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER
FROM 5PM TO MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY
&&
$$
TWYATT
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LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1128 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1127 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
12/03/2012 E0.77 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER
FROM 5PM TO MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY
&&
$$
TWYATT
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 031706
SWODY2
SPC AC 031704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT FAVORABLE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ZONE WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SUCH THAT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT A 5 PERCENT AREA.
..HART.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 031704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT FAVORABLE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ZONE WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SUCH THAT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT A 5 PERCENT AREA.
..HART.. 12/03/2012
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KCHS [031700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 031700
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1200 PM EST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 AM DENSE FOG 7 S BENNETTS POINT 32.46N 80.45W
12/03/2012 E0.25 MILE AMZ352 SC PUBLIC
MARINER NAVIATING NEAR THE COOSAW RIVER AND SAINT
HELENA SOUND REPORTED DENSE SEA FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 0.25 MILE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200838
$$
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1200 PM EST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1150 AM DENSE FOG 7 S BENNETTS POINT 32.46N 80.45W
12/03/2012 E0.25 MILE AMZ352 SC PUBLIC
MARINER NAVIATING NEAR THE COOSAW RIVER AND SAINT
HELENA SOUND REPORTED DENSE SEA FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 0.25 MILE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200838
$$
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KTFX [031656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KTFX 031656
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/01/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
BLACK BEAR SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 9.0
INCHES.
0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
12/01/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/01/2012 M67 MPH TETON MT MESONET
WIND GUST OF 67 MPH AT DELLWO.
0710 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
12/01/2012 M40 MPH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
0830 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/01/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE.
0231 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M45 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NUMEROUS SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH BEGINNING AT 131
AM WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH
0442 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
67 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT NORRIS HILL. WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 52 MPH.
0815 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW THREE FORKS 45.88N 111.57W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH GALLATIN MT AWOS
59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE THREE FORKS AWOS.
0834 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.76N 111.45W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AY RAYNOLDS PASS.
0919 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MONIDA 44.56N 112.31W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT MONIDA PASS.
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.31N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT ELKHORN.
0100 PM SNOW 1 SW LAKEVIEW 44.59N 111.82W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE LAKEVIEW
RIDGE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7400 FEET.
0131 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S BOZEMAN 45.62N 111.04W
12/02/2012 GALLATIN MT BROADCAST MEDIA
KBZK TWEETED A REPORT OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND POLES
SNAPPED DUE TO STRONG WINDS. GOLDENSTEIN LANE...
BOZEMAN.
0420 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BOULDER 46.24N 112.12W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER
61 MPH WIND GUST AND 30 MPH SUSTAINED.
0600 PM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/02/2012 M16.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS AT THE BLACK
BEAR SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8170 FEET.
0600 PM SNOW 21 S BIG SKY 44.96N 111.29W
12/02/2012 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT CARROT BASIN.
ELEVATION 9000 FEET.
0630 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
PIKE CREEK SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 6.0
INCHES. ELEVATION 5928 FEET.
0700 PM SNOW 8 ENE POLARIS 45.41N 112.96W
12/02/2012 M10.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE MULE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE LAST
2 DAYS. ELEVATION 8300 FEET.
0800 PM SNOW 22 S BIG SKY 44.95N 111.36W
12/02/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE BEAVER CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7850 FEET.
0800 PM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE PIKE CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5930 FEET.
1000 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
12/02/2012 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE MADISON
PLATEAU SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7750 FEET.
1200 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
12/03/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
0100 AM SNOW 9 NNW LINCOLN 47.08N 112.73W
12/03/2012 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE COPPER
CAMP SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6950 FEET.
0350 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET
63 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.
0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW WINDHAM 47.10N 110.17W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT OTHER FEDERAL
WIND GUST OF 63 MPH MEASURED NEAR WINDHAM.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/01/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
BLACK BEAR SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 9.0
INCHES.
0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
12/01/2012 M58 MPH TETON MT MESONET
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/01/2012 M67 MPH TETON MT MESONET
WIND GUST OF 67 MPH AT DELLWO.
0710 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
12/01/2012 M40 MPH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
0830 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/01/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE.
0231 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M45 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NUMEROUS SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH BEGINNING AT 131
AM WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH
0442 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
67 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT NORRIS HILL. WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 52 MPH.
0815 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW THREE FORKS 45.88N 111.57W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH GALLATIN MT AWOS
59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE THREE FORKS AWOS.
0834 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.76N 111.45W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AY RAYNOLDS PASS.
0919 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MONIDA 44.56N 112.31W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT MONIDA PASS.
1054 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.31N 111.70W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT ELKHORN.
0100 PM SNOW 1 SW LAKEVIEW 44.59N 111.82W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE LAKEVIEW
RIDGE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7400 FEET.
0131 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S BOZEMAN 45.62N 111.04W
12/02/2012 GALLATIN MT BROADCAST MEDIA
KBZK TWEETED A REPORT OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND POLES
SNAPPED DUE TO STRONG WINDS. GOLDENSTEIN LANE...
BOZEMAN.
0420 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BOULDER 46.24N 112.12W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER
61 MPH WIND GUST AND 30 MPH SUSTAINED.
0600 PM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/02/2012 M16.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS AT THE BLACK
BEAR SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8170 FEET.
0600 PM SNOW 21 S BIG SKY 44.96N 111.29W
12/02/2012 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT CARROT BASIN.
ELEVATION 9000 FEET.
0630 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
PIKE CREEK SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 6.0
INCHES. ELEVATION 5928 FEET.
0700 PM SNOW 8 ENE POLARIS 45.41N 112.96W
12/02/2012 M10.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE MULE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE LAST
2 DAYS. ELEVATION 8300 FEET.
0800 PM SNOW 22 S BIG SKY 44.95N 111.36W
12/02/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE BEAVER CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7850 FEET.
0800 PM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE PIKE CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5930 FEET.
1000 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
12/02/2012 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE MADISON
PLATEAU SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7750 FEET.
1200 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
12/03/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
0100 AM SNOW 9 NNW LINCOLN 47.08N 112.73W
12/03/2012 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE COPPER
CAMP SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6950 FEET.
0350 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET
63 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.
0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW WINDHAM 47.10N 110.17W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT OTHER FEDERAL
WIND GUST OF 63 MPH MEASURED NEAR WINDHAM.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031655]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031655
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 8 ENE POLARIS 45.41N 112.96W
12/02/2012 M10.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE MULE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE LAST
2 DAYS. ELEVATION 8300 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM SNOW 8 ENE POLARIS 45.41N 112.96W
12/02/2012 M10.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
10 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE MULE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE LAST
2 DAYS. ELEVATION 8300 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031654
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM SNOW 9 NNW LINCOLN 47.08N 112.73W
12/03/2012 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE COPPER
CAMP SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6950 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM SNOW 9 NNW LINCOLN 47.08N 112.73W
12/03/2012 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE COPPER
CAMP SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6950 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031653
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
12/03/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
12/03/2012 M7.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE BADGER
PASS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031639
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE PIKE CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5930 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT THE PIKE CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5930 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 031614
SWODY1
SPC AC 031611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A
CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB OF 50-150 M. MEANWHILE...A
LOWER-LATITUDE LOBE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 04/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM WRN MN SSWWD THROUGH ERN NEB...CNTRL KS...INTO THE
NRN TX PNHDL AND CNTRL NM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDED THE FRONT
FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN TX WHILE A WARM FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM
NRN IA EWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF WI AND LOWER MI. EXPECT THE WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL WI THROUGH
W-CNTRL MO/E-CNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 04/00Z. BY
04/12Z...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM SERN LOWER MI THROUGH NRN
IND...CNTRL IL INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HASTEN THE NWD
FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF .75-1.00
INCH/ INTO WI/LOWER MI. HOWEVER...BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
AND FORECAST DATA...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE
OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ONLY
REACHING 500-800 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
DCVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE 03/21Z-04/00Z TIME FRAME FROM CNTRL OR
SRN WI INTO FAR ERN IA/WRN IL. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT
ROTATION...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO EXHIBIT MODERATELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. AS
SUCH...A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 04/00Z SWWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO INTO ERN OK AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS
ENHANCED BY THE LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MOIST /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S F/ THAN POINTS TO THE N...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE WEAK. MOREOVER...THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO LESS THAN 500-1000 J/KG.
MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY OFFSET THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE BRIEF PERIODS OF STORM ORGANIZATION
AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 031611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A
CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB OF 50-150 M. MEANWHILE...A
LOWER-LATITUDE LOBE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 04/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM WRN MN SSWWD THROUGH ERN NEB...CNTRL KS...INTO THE
NRN TX PNHDL AND CNTRL NM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDED THE FRONT
FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN TX WHILE A WARM FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM
NRN IA EWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF WI AND LOWER MI. EXPECT THE WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL WI THROUGH
W-CNTRL MO/E-CNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 04/00Z. BY
04/12Z...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM SERN LOWER MI THROUGH NRN
IND...CNTRL IL INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HASTEN THE NWD
FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF .75-1.00
INCH/ INTO WI/LOWER MI. HOWEVER...BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
AND FORECAST DATA...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE
OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ONLY
REACHING 500-800 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
DCVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE 03/21Z-04/00Z TIME FRAME FROM CNTRL OR
SRN WI INTO FAR ERN IA/WRN IL. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT
ROTATION...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO EXHIBIT MODERATELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. AS
SUCH...A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 04/00Z SWWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO INTO ERN OK AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS
ENHANCED BY THE LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MOIST /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S F/ THAN POINTS TO THE N...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE WEAK. MOREOVER...THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO LESS THAN 500-1000 J/KG.
MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY OFFSET THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE BRIEF PERIODS OF STORM ORGANIZATION
AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 12/03/2012
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KPIH [031509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPIH 031509
LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
809 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0808 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE CHUBBUCK 42.88N 112.42W
12/03/2012 E0.52 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL
&&
$$
TWYATT
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LSRPIH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
809 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0808 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE CHUBBUCK 42.88N 112.42W
12/03/2012 E0.52 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL
&&
$$
TWYATT
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KCYS [031443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 031443
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
742 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW CHEYENNE 41.25N 104.93W
12/03/2012 M53 MPH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
DDEAL
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
742 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW CHEYENNE 41.25N 104.93W
12/03/2012 M53 MPH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
DDEAL
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KGJT [031441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGJT 031441
LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
741 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 AM SNOW DOUGLAS PASS 39.60N 108.80W
12/03/2012 U0.0 INCH GARFIELD CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CLOSED DUE TO ICY CONDITIONS
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1200539
$$
DC
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LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
741 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 AM SNOW DOUGLAS PASS 39.60N 108.80W
12/03/2012 U0.0 INCH GARFIELD CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CLOSED DUE TO ICY CONDITIONS
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1200539
$$
DC
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KTFX [031404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031404
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
704 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW 1 SW LAKEVIEW 44.59N 111.82W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE LAKEVIEW
RIDGE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7400 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
704 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW 1 SW LAKEVIEW 44.59N 111.82W
12/02/2012 M7.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE LAKEVIEW
RIDGE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7400 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031403
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
703 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM SNOW 22 S BIG SKY 44.95N 111.36W
12/02/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE BEAVER CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7850 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
703 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM SNOW 22 S BIG SKY 44.95N 111.36W
12/02/2012 M9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE BEAVER CREEK
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7850 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031401
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
701 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW 21 S BIG SKY 44.96N 111.29W
12/02/2012 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT CARROT BASIN.
ELEVATION 9000 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
701 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW 21 S BIG SKY 44.96N 111.29W
12/02/2012 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT CARROT BASIN.
ELEVATION 9000 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031358
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
12/02/2012 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE MADISON
PLATEAU SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7750 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM SNOW 5 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.12W
12/02/2012 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 3 DAYS AT THE MADISON
PLATEAU SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7750 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [031356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031356
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
656 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/02/2012 M16.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS AT THE BLACK
BEAR SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8170 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
656 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW 10 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.52N 111.13W
12/02/2012 M16.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET
16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS AT THE BLACK
BEAR SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8170 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KGGW [031348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGGW 031348
LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
648 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
12/03/2012 M67 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
MALTA SOUTH DOT
&&
$$
JB
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LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
648 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.98N 108.31W
12/03/2012 M67 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
MALTA SOUTH DOT
&&
$$
JB
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 031259
SWODY1
SPC AC 031257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWD OVER THE CNTRL UNITED STATES...NOW EMERGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE AN ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW MOVES
EWD/ENEWD FROM SERN MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SAME
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE TO
CNTRL AR TO SWRN TX. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO AS
FAR SOUTH AS NERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SEPARATE
AREA OF ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS SERN TX AND
SWRN LA INVOF A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND RELATIVELY RICHER
MOISTURE.
...SRN WI AND SWRN LOWER MI SWWD TO ERN OK AND W-CNTRL AR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY MODEST...PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY WILL
BE LOCALLY BOOSTED BY /1/ MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.../2/ THE INFLUX OF AN EML ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS...AND /3/ DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 300-800 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING.
VERTICAL MIXING PROCESSES MAY MODULATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS PARTS OF THE AREA...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE INVOF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY ACROSS ERN IA/CNTRL IL AND POINTS
NWD/NEWD...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER-ROOTED BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR EPISODE FROM EVOLVING.
REGARDLESS...STRONG SWLY FLOW OF 35-55 KT WITHIN THE 850-700-MB
LAYER WILL YIELD AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR WIND
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE
SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL EXIST
FROM NERN MO NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN IL INTO SRN WI AND ADJACENT LAKE
MI...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850-700-MB FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. IN THESE
AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AIDED BY A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM AGL. AND...WITH THE ANTICIPATED MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 031257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWD OVER THE CNTRL UNITED STATES...NOW EMERGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE AN ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW MOVES
EWD/ENEWD FROM SERN MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SAME
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE TO
CNTRL AR TO SWRN TX. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO AS
FAR SOUTH AS NERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SEPARATE
AREA OF ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS SERN TX AND
SWRN LA INVOF A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND RELATIVELY RICHER
MOISTURE.
...SRN WI AND SWRN LOWER MI SWWD TO ERN OK AND W-CNTRL AR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY MODEST...PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY WILL
BE LOCALLY BOOSTED BY /1/ MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.../2/ THE INFLUX OF AN EML ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS...AND /3/ DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 300-800 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING.
VERTICAL MIXING PROCESSES MAY MODULATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS PARTS OF THE AREA...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE INVOF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY ACROSS ERN IA/CNTRL IL AND POINTS
NWD/NEWD...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER-ROOTED BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR EPISODE FROM EVOLVING.
REGARDLESS...STRONG SWLY FLOW OF 35-55 KT WITHIN THE 850-700-MB
LAYER WILL YIELD AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR WIND
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE
SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL EXIST
FROM NERN MO NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN IL INTO SRN WI AND ADJACENT LAKE
MI...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850-700-MB FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. IN THESE
AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AIDED BY A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM AGL. AND...WITH THE ANTICIPATED MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/03/2012
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KCYS [031243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 031243
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM SNOW 19 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.10N 107.13W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8880 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 17 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.03N 107.03W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SANDSTONE RANGER STATION SNOTEL SITE IN
THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8150 FEET. THE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8
PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.15N 106.97W
12/03/2012 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE OLD BATTLE SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10000 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.6 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 5 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.16N 106.86W
12/03/2012 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9250 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.6 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 10 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.11N 106.93W
12/03/2012 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8915 FEET. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.4 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
10 TO 1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 28 E SAVERY 41.02N 106.91W
12/03/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8950 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 11 SSE ENCAMPMENT 41.06N 106.71W
12/03/2012 E5.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9820 FEET. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.5 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
10 TO 1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8440 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 12 WNW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.32W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10130 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY RANGE
AT AN ELEVATION OF 10050 FEET. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE
SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE BROOKLYN SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY RANGE
AT AN ELEVATION OF 10240 FEET. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE
SNOWFALL WAS FROM 8 PM THE 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 6 SW CENTENNIAL 41.24N 106.19W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9574 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 21 SSE ELK MOUNTAIN 41.41N 106.26W
12/03/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE MEDICINE BOW SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10510 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM SNOW 19 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.10N 107.13W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8880 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 17 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.03N 107.03W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SANDSTONE RANGER STATION SNOTEL SITE IN
THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8150 FEET. THE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8
PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.15N 106.97W
12/03/2012 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE OLD BATTLE SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10000 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.6 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 5 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.16N 106.86W
12/03/2012 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9250 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.6 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 10 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.11N 106.93W
12/03/2012 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8915 FEET. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.4 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
10 TO 1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 28 E SAVERY 41.02N 106.91W
12/03/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8950 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 11 SSE ENCAMPMENT 41.06N 106.71W
12/03/2012 E5.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9820 FEET. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.5 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
10 TO 1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8440 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 12 WNW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.32W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10130 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
12/03/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY RANGE
AT AN ELEVATION OF 10050 FEET. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS 0.2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE
SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE BROOKLYN SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY RANGE
AT AN ELEVATION OF 10240 FEET. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1. THE
SNOWFALL WAS FROM 8 PM THE 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 6 SW CENTENNIAL 41.24N 106.19W
12/03/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9574 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
0200 AM SNOW 21 SSE ELK MOUNTAIN 41.41N 106.26W
12/03/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC
THIS IS FROM THE MEDICINE BOW SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10510 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 0.3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO
1. THE SNOWFALL WAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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KTFX [031202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031202
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
502 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW WINDHAM 47.10N 110.17W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT OTHER FEDERAL
WIND GUST OF 63 MPH MEASURED NEAR WINDHAM.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
502 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW WINDHAM 47.10N 110.17W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT OTHER FEDERAL
WIND GUST OF 63 MPH MEASURED NEAR WINDHAM.
&&
$$
NJL
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KBYZ [031153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KBYZ 031153
LSRBYZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
452 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW NYE 45.40N 109.89W
12/02/2012 M76.00 MPH STILLWATER MT PUBLIC
STILLWATER MINING COMPANY
0840 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE EMIGRANT 45.33N 110.73W
12/02/2012 M67.00 MPH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER
OBSERVER OWNS DAVIS WEATHER STATION EQUIPMENT
0847 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW LIVINGSTON 45.65N 110.60W
12/02/2012 M77.00 MPH PARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0948 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW LIVINGSTON 45.65N 110.60W
12/02/2012 M76.00 MPH PARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0219 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG E LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
12/02/2012 PARK MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF VERY LARGE DOWNED TREES IN ROADWAYS BEING
REMOVED WITH BACKHOES. REPORTS OF ARCING POWER LINES DUE
TO STRONG WINDS.
0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG S RED LODGE 45.19N 109.25W
12/02/2012 CARBON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
SLIGHT WIND DAMAGE FROM A TRAMPOLINE BLOWING INTO A
VEHICLE. WIND VELOCITY UNKNOWN.
0824 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BILLINGS 45.81N 108.54W
12/02/2012 M59.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT ASOS
BILLINGS ASOS
1001 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERIDAN 44.79N 106.96W
12/02/2012 M68.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY ASOS
PEAK SUSTAINED WIND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH AT THE
SHERIDAN AIRPORT.
&&
$$
TOMF
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LSRBYZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
452 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW NYE 45.40N 109.89W
12/02/2012 M76.00 MPH STILLWATER MT PUBLIC
STILLWATER MINING COMPANY
0840 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE EMIGRANT 45.33N 110.73W
12/02/2012 M67.00 MPH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER
OBSERVER OWNS DAVIS WEATHER STATION EQUIPMENT
0847 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW LIVINGSTON 45.65N 110.60W
12/02/2012 M77.00 MPH PARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0948 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW LIVINGSTON 45.65N 110.60W
12/02/2012 M76.00 MPH PARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
0219 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG E LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
12/02/2012 PARK MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF VERY LARGE DOWNED TREES IN ROADWAYS BEING
REMOVED WITH BACKHOES. REPORTS OF ARCING POWER LINES DUE
TO STRONG WINDS.
0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG S RED LODGE 45.19N 109.25W
12/02/2012 CARBON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
SLIGHT WIND DAMAGE FROM A TRAMPOLINE BLOWING INTO A
VEHICLE. WIND VELOCITY UNKNOWN.
0824 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BILLINGS 45.81N 108.54W
12/02/2012 M59.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT ASOS
BILLINGS ASOS
1001 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERIDAN 44.79N 106.96W
12/02/2012 M68.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY ASOS
PEAK SUSTAINED WIND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH AT THE
SHERIDAN AIRPORT.
&&
$$
TOMF
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KGGW [031133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGGW 031133
LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
432 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1111 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
&&
$$
JB
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LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
432 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1111 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
&&
$$
JB
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KMFR [031123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 031123
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
323 AM PST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HEAVY RAIN NNE MYRTLE POINT 43.07N 124.13W
12/02/2012 M2.20 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL BETWEEN 4 PM SATURDAY AND 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SANDLER
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
323 AM PST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HEAVY RAIN NNE MYRTLE POINT 43.07N 124.13W
12/02/2012 M2.20 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL BETWEEN 4 PM SATURDAY AND 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SANDLER
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KMFR [031122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 031122
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
322 AM PST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE COOS BAY 43.35N 124.09W
12/02/2012 M2.03 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL BETWEEN 8 PM SATURDAY AND 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SANDLER
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
322 AM PST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE COOS BAY 43.35N 124.09W
12/02/2012 M2.03 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL BETWEEN 8 PM SATURDAY AND 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SANDLER
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KTFX [031119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 031119
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
418 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET
63 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
418 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/03/2012 M63 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET
63 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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KCYS [031107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 031107
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH CARBON WY ASOS
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
12/03/2012 M53 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS
0342 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
12/03/2012 M43 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS
1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CONVERSE WY ASOS
0141 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH GOSHEN WY ASOS
0252 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SCOTTSBLUFF 41.87N 103.66W
12/03/2012 M51 MPH SCOTTS BLUFF NE ASOS
0351 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS
0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH KIMBALL NE ASOS
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
12/03/2012 M70 MPH PLATTE WY MESONET
0241 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SW SOUTH GREELEY HIGH 41.05N 104.89W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET
0207 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NNW VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
12/03/2012 M59 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
&&
$$
RUBIN
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH CARBON WY ASOS
0142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
12/03/2012 M53 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS
0342 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
12/03/2012 M43 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS
1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CONVERSE WY ASOS
0141 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH GOSHEN WY ASOS
0252 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SCOTTSBLUFF 41.87N 103.66W
12/03/2012 M51 MPH SCOTTS BLUFF NE ASOS
0351 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS
0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH KIMBALL NE ASOS
0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
12/03/2012 M70 MPH PLATTE WY MESONET
0241 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SW SOUTH GREELEY HIGH 41.05N 104.89W
12/03/2012 M58 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET
0207 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NNW VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
12/03/2012 M59 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
&&
$$
RUBIN
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KUNR [030912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 030912
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
212 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0134 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
12/03/2012 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS
0152 AM HIGH SUST WINDS RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
12/03/2012 M41 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS
&&
$$
WFO UNR
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
212 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0134 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
12/03/2012 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS
0152 AM HIGH SUST WINDS RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
12/03/2012 M41 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS
&&
$$
WFO UNR
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KUNR [030845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 030845
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
145 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
WFO UNR
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
145 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
WFO UNR
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KCYS [030821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 030821
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
121 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 45 MPH.
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.31W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
THIS IS FROM THE HALLICK RIDGE AREA ON INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
121 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 45 MPH.
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.31W
12/03/2012 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
THIS IS FROM THE HALLICK RIDGE AREA ON INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 030816
SWODY3
SPC AC 030814
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE DAY...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES -- CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN SC/SRN GA/NRN FL AND VICINITY...MEAGER
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT DO NOT SUPPORT ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
FARTHER W...BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...S OF A TROUGH CROSSING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION -- AND INTO/ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE...LACK OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 030814
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE DAY...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES -- CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN SC/SRN GA/NRN FL AND VICINITY...MEAGER
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT DO NOT SUPPORT ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
FARTHER W...BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...S OF A TROUGH CROSSING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION -- AND INTO/ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE...LACK OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2012
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KCYS [030730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 030730
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1230 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.24W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 46 MPH.
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE I-80 EXIT 279 41.50N 106.05W
12/02/2012 M70 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 39 MPH.
1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1230 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.24W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 46 MPH.
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE I-80 EXIT 279 41.50N 106.05W
12/02/2012 M70 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 39 MPH.
1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
&&
$$
MWEILAND
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KUNR [030724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 030724
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1224 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
1156 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/02/2012 M45 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
&&
$$
WFOUNR
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1224 AM MST MON DEC 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
1156 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/02/2012 M45 MPH HARDING SD ASOS
&&
$$
WFOUNR
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 030655
SWODY2
SPC AC 030654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY WILL CONTINUE
ITS EWD PROGRESSION...EXPANDING TO COVER ALL OF ERN NOAM BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MORE
ZONAL/LOWER-AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW FIELD WILL EXPAND OVER THE
WEST...THOUGH A TREND TOWARD WEAKLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL OCCUR AS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN CANADA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ERN UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX WILL ALSO MAKE EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER SW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT MORE
SLOWLY SEWD...LINGERING INVOF THE UPPER TX/CENTRAL GULF COASTS
THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING -- POSSIBLY AS FAR NEWD AS THE MID/UPPER OH
VALLEY. MOST SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
INVOF THE LOWER MS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE.
HAVING SAID THAT...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 30
KT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY -- SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS. WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW 5%.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 030654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY WILL CONTINUE
ITS EWD PROGRESSION...EXPANDING TO COVER ALL OF ERN NOAM BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MORE
ZONAL/LOWER-AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW FIELD WILL EXPAND OVER THE
WEST...THOUGH A TREND TOWARD WEAKLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL OCCUR AS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN CANADA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ERN UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX WILL ALSO MAKE EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER SW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT MORE
SLOWLY SEWD...LINGERING INVOF THE UPPER TX/CENTRAL GULF COASTS
THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING -- POSSIBLY AS FAR NEWD AS THE MID/UPPER OH
VALLEY. MOST SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
INVOF THE LOWER MS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE.
HAVING SAID THAT...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 30
KT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY -- SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS. WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW 5%.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2012
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KCYS [030617]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 030617
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1117 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.17W
12/02/2012 E58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.30W
12/02/2012 E59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WAGONHOUND WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.72N 106.45W
12/02/2012 E59.00 MPH CARBON WY AWOS
ELK MOUNTAIN AWOS SITE. SUSTAINED AT 44 MPH.
1100 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.76N 106.51W
12/02/2012 E41.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT SENSOR AT HALLECK RIDGE. WIND GUST 54 MPH.
&&
$$
LIEBL
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1117 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.17W
12/02/2012 E58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.30W
12/02/2012 E59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WAGONHOUND WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.72N 106.45W
12/02/2012 E59.00 MPH CARBON WY AWOS
ELK MOUNTAIN AWOS SITE. SUSTAINED AT 44 MPH.
1100 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.76N 106.51W
12/02/2012 E41.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT SENSOR AT HALLECK RIDGE. WIND GUST 54 MPH.
&&
$$
LIEBL
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
ACUS01 KWNS 030609
SWODY1
SPC AC 030607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR GEN TSTM LINE/NDFD
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SK INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WI INTO NRN TX BY
00Z...WITH SLY WINDS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MI INTO MO...AND SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX AFTER 00Z
AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI...
STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO INTO ERN WI AND
WRN MI BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
WI...ERN IA/WRN IL AND PERHAPS INTO NERN MO BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /50 KT AT 700 MB/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...WRN AR...ERN OK...NERN TX AFTER 03Z...
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM SWWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LIFT
ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 030607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR GEN TSTM LINE/NDFD
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SK INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WI INTO NRN TX BY
00Z...WITH SLY WINDS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MI INTO MO...AND SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX AFTER 00Z
AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI...
STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO INTO ERN WI AND
WRN MI BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
WI...ERN IA/WRN IL AND PERHAPS INTO NERN MO BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /50 KT AT 700 MB/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...WRN AR...ERN OK...NERN TX AFTER 03Z...
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM SWWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LIFT
ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/03/2012
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KSLC [030551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KSLC 030551
LSRSLC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.11N 112.81W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
DURAND ROAD - 4538 FT
0635 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH CACHE UT MESONET
SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NORDIC VLY 41.37N 111.76W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
POWDER MOUNTAIN - 8897 FT
0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PARK CITY 40.63N 111.53W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
PARK CITY - BONANZA TOP - 9200 FT
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BRIGHTON 40.61N 111.54W
12/02/2012 M71 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
PARK CITY - JUPITER - 10024 FT
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.56N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M113 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.19N 111.87W
12/02/2012 M81 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
SNOWBASIN-STRAW TOP - 8999 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
12/02/2012 M73 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT
0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.63W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 10443 FT
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M99 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT
0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH JUAB UT MESONET
U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT
1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST STOCKTON 40.46N 112.41W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
SOUTH MOUNTAIN - 6001 FT
1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CRANMER 40.61N 111.48W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
DEER VLY - MOUNT BALDY - 9347 FT
1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAUER 40.46N 112.37W
12/02/2012 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
STOCKTON BAR - 5161 FT
1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.37N 113.00W
12/02/2012 M68 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
UPPER CEDAR MTN - 7052 FT
0807 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RANDOLPH 41.63N 111.41W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH CACHE UT MESONET
RED SPUR - 8872 FT
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UINTAH 41.14N 111.89W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
WEBER CANYON POWER PLANT - 5801 FT
0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SUNDANCE 40.37N 111.59W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH UTAH UT MESONET
SUNDANCE - ARROWHEAD - 8251 FT
0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.59N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
ALTA - GUARD HOUSE - 8799 FT
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SALINE 41.26N 112.44W
12/02/2012 M64 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET
PROMONTORY POINT - 6926 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.06N 112.89W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET
LAKESIDE MOUNTAIN - 5039 FT
0750 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.22N 111.80W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
TRAPPERS LOOP ROAD - 5774 FT
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WEST PT 41.09N 112.12W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH DAVIS UT MESONET
SYRACUSE - 4199 FT
&&
$$
ROGOWSKI
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LSRSLC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.11N 112.81W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
DURAND ROAD - 4538 FT
0635 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH CACHE UT MESONET
SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NORDIC VLY 41.37N 111.76W
12/02/2012 M67 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
POWDER MOUNTAIN - 8897 FT
0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PARK CITY 40.63N 111.53W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
PARK CITY - BONANZA TOP - 9200 FT
0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BRIGHTON 40.61N 111.54W
12/02/2012 M71 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
PARK CITY - JUPITER - 10024 FT
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.56N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M113 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.19N 111.87W
12/02/2012 M81 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
SNOWBASIN-STRAW TOP - 8999 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
12/02/2012 M73 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT
0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.63W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 10443 FT
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M99 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT
0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH JUAB UT MESONET
U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT
1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST STOCKTON 40.46N 112.41W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
SOUTH MOUNTAIN - 6001 FT
1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CRANMER 40.61N 111.48W
12/02/2012 M60 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET
DEER VLY - MOUNT BALDY - 9347 FT
1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAUER 40.46N 112.37W
12/02/2012 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
STOCKTON BAR - 5161 FT
1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.37N 113.00W
12/02/2012 M68 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET
UPPER CEDAR MTN - 7052 FT
0807 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RANDOLPH 41.63N 111.41W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH CACHE UT MESONET
RED SPUR - 8872 FT
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UINTAH 41.14N 111.89W
12/02/2012 M59 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
WEBER CANYON POWER PLANT - 5801 FT
0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SUNDANCE 40.37N 111.59W
12/02/2012 M61 MPH UTAH UT MESONET
SUNDANCE - ARROWHEAD - 8251 FT
0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.59N 111.64W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET
ALTA - GUARD HOUSE - 8799 FT
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SALINE 41.26N 112.44W
12/02/2012 M64 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET
PROMONTORY POINT - 6926 FT
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.06N 112.89W
12/02/2012 M65 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET
LAKESIDE MOUNTAIN - 5039 FT
0750 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.22N 111.80W
12/02/2012 M58 MPH WEBER UT MESONET
TRAPPERS LOOP ROAD - 5774 FT
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WEST PT 41.09N 112.12W
12/02/2012 M62 MPH DAVIS UT MESONET
SYRACUSE - 4199 FT
&&
$$
ROGOWSKI
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 030547
SWODY1
SPC AC 030545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SK INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WI INTO NRN TX BY
00Z...WITH SLY WINDS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MI INTO MO...AND SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX AFTER 00Z
AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI...
STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO INTO ERN WI AND
WRN MI BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
WI...ERN IA/WRN IL AND PERHAPS INTO NERN MO BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /50 KT AT 700 MB/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...WRN AR...ERN OK...NERN TX AFTER 03Z...
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM SWWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LIFT
ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/03/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 030545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SK INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WI INTO NRN TX BY
00Z...WITH SLY WINDS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MI INTO MO...AND SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX AFTER 00Z
AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI...
STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO INTO ERN WI AND
WRN MI BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
WI...ERN IA/WRN IL AND PERHAPS INTO NERN MO BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /50 KT AT 700 MB/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...WRN AR...ERN OK...NERN TX AFTER 03Z...
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM SWWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LIFT
ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/03/2012
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KBYZ [030519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KBYZ 030519
LSRBYZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1019 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1001 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERIDAN 44.79N 106.96W
12/02/2012 M68 MPH SHERIDAN WY ASOS
PEAK SUSTAINED WIND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH AT THE
SHERIDAN AIRPORT.
&&
$$
CJS
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LSRBYZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1019 PM MST SUN DEC 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1001 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERIDAN 44.79N 106.96W
12/02/2012 M68 MPH SHERIDAN WY ASOS
PEAK SUSTAINED WIND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH AT THE
SHERIDAN AIRPORT.
&&
$$
CJS
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