ACUS01 KWNS 110054
SWODY1
SPC AC 110051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS CLEARLY UNDERCUTTING HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
RESULTING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL /850-500MB/ LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM.
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ON
SWRN PERIPHERY OF EXTENSIVE CNTRL NOAM ANTICYCLONE...COUPLED WITH
LARGE SCALE FORCING...HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED INTENSE
STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM NEWD TO THE TX AND OK
PNHDLS.
MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE STORM INFLOW LAYER AND RESULTING
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KT EXIST ACROSS THE REGION BASED
ON EVENING PROFILER AND SOUNDING DATA. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS
SUPPORTED GENERALLY SLOW SEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY CLOSE TO A PEAK IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND ONGOING DOWNWARD TREND IN AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WELL-FORMED SUPERCELLS...A
LOCAL SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
.CARBIN.. 10/11/2007
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