Monday, September 1, 2008

KLCH [011840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011840
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
140 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0138 PM HURRICANE NEW IBERIA 30.01N 91.82W
09/01/2008 IBERIA LA ASOS

WIND GUST TO 75 MPH AT ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KMOB [011830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 011830
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM TORNADO 2 N ELSANOR 30.57N 87.58W
09/01/2008 BALDWIN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 87 NEAR ELBERTA. A
TRAILER WAS DAMAGED.


&&

$$

CACERES

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KCHS [011830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 011830
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
229 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/01/2008 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED PERSISTENT RIP CURRENTS
AT 15TH AND 17TH STREETS. SPORADIC RIP CURRENTS HAVE
OCCURRED AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

$$

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KMOB [011818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 011818
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
118 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM HAIL MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/01/2008 E0.75 INCH STONE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF THE WLOX TV TOWER.


&&

$$

CACERES

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KJAN [011743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 011743
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM TROPICAL STORM PURVIS 31.14N 89.41W
09/01/2008 LAMAR MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS LAMAR COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH
BANDS OF SQUALLS MOVING ACROSS COUNTY.

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/01/2008 M52.00 MPH MARION MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1233 PM TROPICAL STORM BOGUE CHITTO 31.43N 90.45W
09/01/2008 LINCOLN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF LINCOLN COUNTY.

1233 PM TROPICAL STORM COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/01/2008 MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER OUTAGES AND TREES DOWN ACROSS MARION
COUNTY...INCLUDING TREES DOWN AND OUTAGES IN THE CITY OF
COLUMBIA.

1233 PM TROPICAL STORM ROXIE 31.51N 91.07W
09/01/2008 FRANKLIN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.


&&

$$

GERARD

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KMOB [011740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 011740
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1240 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM WATER SPOUT SHALIMAR 30.45N 86.57W
09/01/2008 OKALOOSA FL NWS EMPLOYEE

A WATERSPOUT MOVED ASHORE NEAR SHALIMAR. NO DAMAGE
REPORTED. NWS TAE RELAYED REPORT.


&&

$$

CACERES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011726
SWODY2
SPC AC 011724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN...AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST COAST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/ROCKIES. AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS
QUEBEC...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SHIFT
WESTWARD A BIT...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY HIGH
CENTER...WITHIN A RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN. AND...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY OVER PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WHILE THE SLOWING MOTION OF GUSTAV MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TUESDAY...THIS COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR TO
CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WEAKENING FROM TROPICAL STORM TO DEPRESSION DURING THIS PERIOD...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING
RISK FOR ISOLATED GENERALLY BRIEF TORNADOES. HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR THIS SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/
LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN MAXIMIZED...AND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. COUPLED
WITH ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION...PRIMARILY DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE SEVERE RISK
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIMITED.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
DESPITE A STRENGTHENING/DRYING WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR TROUGH...LINGERING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
TERRAIN AIDED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/01/2008

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KLIX [011711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 011711
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 PM TORNADO 5 SE BATON ROUGE 30.40N 91.07W
09/01/2008 EAST BATON ROUGE LA TRAINED SPOTTER

POSSIBLE TORNADO SNAPPED 4 LARGE TREES NEAR BLUE BAYOU
WATER PARK.


&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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KJAN [011642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 011642
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 S HATTIESBURG 31.17N 89.31W
09/01/2008 FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SPORADIC REPORTS OF A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG THE PATH OF
ROTATING SQUALL THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL FORREST COUNTY.
TREE DOWN ACROSS INTERSTATE 59.


&&

$$

GERARD

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KLCH [011636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011636
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM TROPICAL STORM 17 SSE BURNS POINT 29.36N 91.40W
09/01/2008 GMZ455 LA OTHER FEDERAL

USGS SITE NEAR EUGENE ISLAND REPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF
62 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 73 MPH


&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KTAE [011630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTAE 011630
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM STORM SURGE 6 SE PANACEA 29.98N 84.32W
09/01/2008 E5.00 FT GMZ730 FL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING OVER MASHES SANDS ROAD AND ALSO FLOODING IN
WOOLEY PARK. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS WERE IMPACTED. OF THE 21
HOMES AFFECTED, 15 SUSTAINED MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM
SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF WATER.


&&

$$

JAMSKI

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KLIX [011627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 011627
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1124 AM STORM SURGE GULFPORT 30.39N 89.07W
09/01/2008 E0.00 FT HARRISON MS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER CROSSING HWY 90 EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF I-10
AND HWY 49.


&&

$$

DM

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KLCH [011619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011619
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 AM TROPICAL STORM 14 ESE BURNS POINT 29.47N 91.33W
09/01/2008 GMZ455 LA OTHER FEDERAL

THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT LAWMA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 53 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH.


&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KTFX [011619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 011619
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 1 N JEFFERSON CITY 46.40N 112.03W
09/01/2008 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GROUND THIS MORNING AT 4500 FEET.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN THE KNEES 48.02N 111.28W
09/01/2008 M1.91 INCH CHOUTEAU MT CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL. TOTAL IN PAST 24 HOURS IS 1.52 INCHES.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 S GREAT FALLS 47.36N 111.29W
09/01/2008 M1.70 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0900 AM SNOW SIMMS 47.49N 111.93W
09/01/2008 U0.0 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THIS MORNING.

0900 AM SNOW CASCADE 47.27N 111.70W
09/01/2008 U0.0 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THIS MORNING.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.37W
09/01/2008 M0.40 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. HAD LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GROUND
THIS MORNING AT 6000 FEET.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN HALF MOON PASS 46.77N 109.34W
09/01/2008 M0.60 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR.


&&
MANY OF THE AREA PASSES HAD SNOW ON THE GROUND THIS MORNING. KINGS
HILL AREA HAD A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. AT ROGERS PASS...THE
ROAD WAS SNOW COVERED...WHILE AT MACDONALD PASS...BOULDER HILL...ELK
PARK...HOMESTAKE PASS...AND BIG HOLE PASS HAD FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT FROM AREA SNOTELS
IS 6 INCHES AT THE COPPER CAMP SNOTEL NEAR LINCOLN.
$$

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KLCH [011618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 011618
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM TROPICAL STORM 6 S PATTERSON 29.60N 91.30W
09/01/2008 ST. MARY LA ASOS

ASOS KP92 REPORTED A GUST TO 48 MPH.


&&

$$

SNAVELY

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KLCH [011613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011613
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1113 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM AVALANCHE 6 S PATTERSON 29.60N 91.30W
09/01/2008 ST. MARY LA ASOS

ASOS KP92 REPORTED A GUST TO 48 MPH.


&&

$$

SNAVELY

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KMOB [011608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 011608
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1108 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1101 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE DESTIN 30.43N 86.47W
09/01/2008 OKALOOSA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED OVER CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY


&&

$$

CACERES

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KLIX [011604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 011604
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1103 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1101 AM HURRICANE HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
09/01/2008 TERREBONNE LA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN BLOCKING HWY 90 INTO HOUMA. WINDS ESTIMATED AT
90-95 MPH. REPORT RELAYED BY LCH.


&&

$$

DM

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KLCH [011602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 011602
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM HURRICANE STEPHENSVILLE 29.78N 91.17W
09/01/2008 ST. MARTIN LA EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER OUTAGES REPORTED ACROSS LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH.

1101 AM TROPICAL STORM 4 WNW NEW IBERIA 30.03N 91.88W
09/01/2008 IBERIA LA ASOS

THE ASOS AT ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A GUST TO
52 MPH.


&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011556
SWODY1
SPC AC 011553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NWWD AND WEAKEN FROM S
CENTRAL LA TODAY INTO WRN LA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ENVELOPE OF
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
COVER AREAS FROM NEAR I-20 TODAY IN LA/MS ESEWD INTO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE. A SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE NW OF THE STORM CENTER...WHILE THE
RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 76-78 F/ AND WARMEST
TEMPERATURES /LOW 80S/ ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WWD FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE/SRN AL INTO SRN MS AND SE LA AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
FARTHER W/NW. THE GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF RICHER MOISTURE/GREATER INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT 75-150 MI E OF THE STORM CENTER.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TODAY
ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD NE ND/NW MN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING TO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM NEB NWD TO THE DAKOTAS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES
AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 7 C/KM WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F WILL SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM SD INTO ERN ND/NW MN.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
SPREAD NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES
WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND PARALLELING THE FRONT. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A TORNADO THREAT NEAR AND NE OF THE SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT IN
ND...IF STORMS CAN STAY SURFACE-BASED ALONG THE FRONT.

ANOTHER BAND/CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTAL SURGE.
AN INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE FROM WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE SUGGESTS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN E/SE WY THAN EXPECTED
EARLIER. THUS...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN SHIFTED EWD FROM
WY INTO NEB.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/01/2008

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