ACUS11 KWNS 202035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202035
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY...EXTREME SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202035Z - 202130Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN SD...NERN WY...AND EXTREME SERN MT. THESE
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS
RESULTED IN CI ACROSS THE BIG HORN MTNS...WHILE CU FIELD IS
STRUGGLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION...PER RECENT VIS IMAGERY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE LESS THAN 1000
J/KG/...MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-5O KTS/ WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...A THREAT
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS...A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
EXIST DUE TO LARGER SFC T-TD SPREADS. A SEVERE WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE 1-2 HRS.
..ROGERS.. 07/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43210307 43680461 43940717 44380743 45070729 45120663
45150399 44680276 44250223 43790234 43210307
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