ACUS01 KWNS 142025
SWODY1
SPC AC 142023
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN AR...WRN TN AND NRN
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WV...SRN PA...NWRN MD
AND NRN VA...
CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
...NERN AR...WRN TN AND NRN MS...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER SWRN MO AND NWRN AR
ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH N-CNTRL AND SWRN AR. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
INCREASED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN AR. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS IT MOVES
THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN WHERE
JET STREAK ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS RESULTING IN
30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL
RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AREA...
REF SWOMCD 2178.
...SWRN STATES...
REF SWOMCD 2177.
..DIAL.. 09/14/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011/
...NORTHEAST STATES...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THIS UPDATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW.
...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COMMA-CLOUD OVER SOUTHWEST MO.
ENHANCED LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN VICINITY OF THE FEATURE WOULD
SUGGEST A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF
AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
...SOUTHWEST STATES...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGER STORMS.
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