SWODY1
SPC AC 130042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
..SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS OF WRN TX. EARLY THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE 40S
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX TO THE 30S IN THE TX PANHANDLE. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAPPING THE MOIST AXIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS
WRN TX. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM
NERN NM THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD THROUGH NM. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED NATURE
OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OVERNIGHT THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THIS ALONG WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND KS. THE
THREAT FOR MOSTLY LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN
AND SRN FLANKS OF THE MCS WHERE FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
EXIST.
.DIAL.. 04/13/2007
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