Monday, April 16, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170050
SWODY1
SPC AC 170047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF UT/CO INTO NRN NM IN ADVANCE AND TO THE N OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH AZ. 00Z ABQ/GJT
SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...FEATURING A DEEP AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF 200-400
J/KG. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT OVER THE CNTRL INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BELT OF STRONGER MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE UPPER TROUGH.

AS OF 0030Z...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE INVOF PUB WERE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS
RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. WHILE ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THESE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY BY 02-03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WEAKEN. OTHER STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF W TX LATER TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING WAA
REGIME ALONG LLJ AXIS.

.MEAD.. 04/17/2007

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