SWODY1
SPC AC 251629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS NW
INTO SE KS/CNTRL MO AND SRN IL/IND...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
..SYNOPSIS...
KS/OK BORDER UPR LOW SHOULD TRACK E TO NEAR BVO LATER TODAY BEFORE
ACCELERATING NE TO NEAR STL BY 12Z THURSDAY. 70+ KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX NOW IN SE QUADRANT OF SYSTEM SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE LWR
MS AND LWR TN VLYS TODAY...AND REACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC CST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...THAT REGION WILL BE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG
ZONAL SPEED MAX EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND CST.
AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SLOWLY ENE FROM
SE KS INTO SRN/CNTRL MO LATER TODAY...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY
THURSDAY.
..LWR MS VLY...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLY REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LLJ HAS VEERED AND
DECREASED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF EXISTING LA/SE TX SQLN. COUPLED WITH MODERATE SFC HEATING
AND ORIENTATION OF LINE PARALLEL TO DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MAINTENANCE/INTENSIFICATION OF SQLN. EMBEDDED
LEWPS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ERN OK/SE KS INTO MO/AR...
FILTERED SUNSHINE BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF KS/OK UPR LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OVER SE KS/ERN OK
AND THE OZARKS REGION TODAY. WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY WIDE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION AS UPR
SYSTEM EDGES EWD...COMPLICATING ANTICIPATION OF PREDOMINANT STORM
TYPE. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THIS LARGELY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR SFC
LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO FAR ERN OK/WRN AR.
..MID ATLANTIC REGION...
AREA VWPS SHOW MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW OVER THE
VA/WV/MD/DE AREA IN ENTRANCE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND SPEED MAX...WHERE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH STRONG SFC HEATING. A
SHALLOW BACK-DOOR FRONT HAS NOSED SE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...WITH
LIGHT NEAR-SFC ELY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WV/MD
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY FOSTERED BY
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER ENVIRONMENT...STORMS MAY FORM INTO A
LINE THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON E/SE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007
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