Tuesday, April 17, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171924
SWODY1
SPC AC 171922

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN/NCNTRL
TX...

..SOUTHERN PLAINS...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...JUST SW OF LBB.
STRONGEST FLOW HAS NOW ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND IS
EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALONG/NORTH OF THIS SPEED
MAX...ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...VERY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD RECOVERING/MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EVIDENT WEST OF I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW REBOUNDED INTO THE 60S...WITH DEW POINTS AOA
MID 50S.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WITH MANY UPDRAFTS NOW LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TIME A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW151 WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOTICEABLY
STRONGER. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS INVOF UPPER LOW WHERE VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

.DARROW.. 04/17/2007

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