SWODY2
SPC AC 240554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
AREA...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
SRN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND INTO SRN TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
QUASISTATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE
PERIOD.
..ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST WITHIN
REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SHIFT EAST INTO
THE SERN U.S. AND TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY EAST OF ANY ONGOING
ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY. THE 0-2 KM
HELICITY IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE SERN U.S AND TN VALLEY.
..ERN KS THROUGH ERN OK INTO WRN MO AND NWRN AR...
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH ERN OK AND KS DURING THE
DAY IN WAKE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS LOW CLOUD MIX OUT AND
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK NWD TO
NEAR SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONGER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL EXIST
FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.
.DIAL.. 04/24/2007
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