SWODY2
SPC AC 280523
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
STATES TURNING SEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT ENEWD INTO EXTREME
WEST TEXAS BY 30/1200Z.
AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OUT OF ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WRN MT/ID PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..AREAS OF WEST TEXAS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING EXIT
REGION OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ALONG THE MEXICAN HIGH PLAINS JUST SW OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG IN MUCAPE POSING
THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL.
..PARTS OF IA INTO NRN IL...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT GIVEN NWLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W TX TURNING WLY
INTO IA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH MODELS GENERATE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KT ACROSS ERN IA. THUS...PLACED A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWWD AIDED BY UPSLOPE ACROSS MT MOVING INTO THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/28/2007
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