SWODY2
SPC AC 291731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
RVR VLY...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN TX...
..UPR MS RVR VLY/CORN BELT...
UPR WAVE NOW CROSSING ONTARIO WILL ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. IN
WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...A FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED FROM THE MID-OH VLY NWWD TO THE UPR MS RVR VLY. FAST BELT
OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PAC NW
TODAY INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY BY MONDAY EVENING.
STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS AOA 20 DEG C INTO THE CORN BELT. BENEATH THIS EML...BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE CALIBER OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS. NONETHELESS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT
CONSIDERABLY FROM NEB NEWD INTO IA AND SRN MN...WEAKENING INHIBITION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH
APPROACHING IMPULSE SPREAD ESEWD...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SWRN/SCNTRL MN BY LATE AFTN.
ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO AND MOVE SEWD
INTO NRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN WI DURING THE EVE.
BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE NATURE OF WEAK FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE DISCRETE SPLITTING CELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM/BACKBUILD WWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA AND PARTS OF NEB. ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
..CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX...
UPR LOW APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NWD INTO OK THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY MAINTAIN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM EXTREME N TX/OK. BINOVC FARTHER S WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTN.
DRIER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM SWRN TX INTO CNTRL TX
DURING THE DAY...WITH DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH LIKELY THE IMPETUS FOR MORE
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS SCNTRL TX.
PRIND THAT AFTN STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..MIDWEST-CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
WNWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL LIKELY CARRY TSTM CLUSTERS SEWD FROM
THE UPR MIDWEST SEWD INTO THE REGION MON-MON NIGHT. MODELS ARE
LIKELY OVERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UPSTREAM
IN THE SOURCE REGION AND THIS WILL IMPACT ANTICIPATED BUOYANCY
FARTHER SE. BUT...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS FROM PARTS OF OH INTO WV MON
AFTN/EVE.
.RACY.. 04/29/2007
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