DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140712
SWODY3
SPC AC 140710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN CONUS DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS -- MOVING FROM SWRN AZ TO S CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER/WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
TAKES THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL AZ AT 16/12Z INTO WRN N TX AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY 17/12Z.

IN EITHER CASE...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..SERN NM/FAR W TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS ERN NM/W TX IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SELY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AS PRIOR FRONTAL SURGE THROUGH THE
GULF SUGGESTS THAT GULF AIR WILL BE ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED. THIS
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE SHEAR PROFILES
WHICH BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM/FAR W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER COULD PROMOTE EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE TX PLAINS
OVERNIGHT -- AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN
INSUFFICIENTLY-MOIST...STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...WITH ONLY A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM FAR W TX/SERN NM INTO
THE TRANSPECOS REGION -- TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.

.GOSS.. 04/14/2007

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