SWODY3
SPC AC 250738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE ERN U.S. AND
APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. EARLY
FRIDAY THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
FARTHER WEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD
INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
..CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. LEAD
VORT MAX WILL LIKELY EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES DURING THE
DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN A DECREASE OF ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
AND AS SECONDARY VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE AREA. WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
..WRN TX...
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD THROUGH WRN TX BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY BUT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD PERSIST.
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EML
TO ADVECT EWD. THE MORE NWD TRACK OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHORTWAVE
WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF TX...WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FARTHER S. IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
.DIAL.. 04/25/2007
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