Saturday, April 21, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210810
SWOD48
SPC AC 210809

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

--ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS TUESDAY...APRIL 24TH AND THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS
INTO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...APRIL 25TH.--

..DISCUSSION...

DESPITE SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHIFTING UPPER LOW EWD INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY 4...TUESDAY APRIL 24TH AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THIS FEATURES IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL REGIME OVER THE ERN STATES. THEREAFTER...NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W ON DAY 6...THURSDAY
APRIL 26TH WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIANCE IN EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY APRIL 24TH AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREAD A
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
TX NWD THROUGH OK INTO KS. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS INTO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 25TH. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY APRIL 26TH FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST INTO TN
VALLEY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
OWING TO THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY.

.MEAD.. 04/21/2007

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