Sunday, April 22, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220816
SWOD48
SPC AC 220816

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT IN
DEAMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE ERN STATES ON DAYS 4 THROUGH 6
/WED-FRI/...APRIL 25TH-27TH. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO PLAINS STATES ON DAY
6...FRIDAY APRIL 27TH...WITH SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN STATES ON
DAYS 7 AND 8 /SAT-SUN/...APRIL 28TH AND 29TH.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY...APRIL
25TH OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
THREAT MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY...AND OVERALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE REGIONAL AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ANY
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.MEAD.. 04/22/2007

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