SWOD48
SPC AC 290843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE COMING NEWD FROM NRN BAJA/NWRN MEXICO INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MAY 2-3 BEFORE WEAKENING OVER
OK/NRN TX ON MAY 4. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH THIS
FEATURE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT KINEMATICS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THUS...FEEL THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW FOR AN AREA AT THIS TIME.
AFTER MAY 4...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER GREATLY IN THE TROUGHING
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WRN U.S. THE ECMWF
CONTINUED TO BE MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS/UKMET KEEPING
PREDICTABILITY LOW BEYOND DAY 6.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/29/2007
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