Thursday, April 12, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0466

ACUS11 KWNS 120416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120416
NCZ000-SCZ000-120545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120416Z - 120545Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 04Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC /FROM
JUST SE OF RDU TO 20 S OF SOP/ AND WRN NC /FROM GSO TO 20 W CLT/.
THE FORMER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
E OF PIEDMONT OR WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR OR JUST W OF CAE TO
W OF RDU TO RIC AS OF 04Z. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER CLUSTER OF STORMS
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO EXIT REGION OF 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.

STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED IN BOTH REGIMES...THOUGH MORE SO TO THE W
OF WEDGE FRONT OVER WRN NC...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPES OF 400-600 J/KG. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
TROUGH...SUPPORTING POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL OWING TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES. SOME STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED WHERE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.MEAD.. 04/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35508078 36038024 36267957 36417830 36477766 36327718
35797717 35247751 34667804 34397874 34347952 34467995

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