SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120639
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-120745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT THU APR 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC...S-CENTRAL/SERN
VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...
VALID 120639Z - 120745Z
WW 129 SVR THREAT CONTINUES. ERN PORTION WW -- FROM E-CENTRAL NC TO
SERN VA THEN ADDITIONAL TERRITORY EWD TO COAST -- MAY REQUIRE
TORNADO WW. ANY SUCH WW WOULD REPLACE OVERLAPPING PORTION OF WW
129...AND WOULD CONSTITUTE NEW WW FARTHER E.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW DEEPENING OVER E-CENTRAL VA...WITH
STRONGEST ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR ILM.
ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN
VA...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS...AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO INFLUX OF MARINE AIR.
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE FCST TO BECOME CLOSER TO SFC-BASED
BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION SHIFTING RICHER AIR MASS
NEWD ACROSS REGION E OF ONGOING CONVECTION. VWP DATA AND MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PERSIST FROM
SERN NC NEWD TO SERN VA...WITH VEERING TREND IN NEAR-SFC FLOW
EXPECTED FARTHER S. 0-3 KM SRH INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT FROM
AROUND 300 J/KG OVER SRN-MOST NC TO ABOVE 500 J/KG SERN VA.
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS ALREADY HAVE BEEN EVIDENT WITHIN PRIMARY BAND
OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 129 AREA IN NC...AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL THEREWITH SHOULD INCREASE ONTO COASTAL PLAIN AS INFLOW AIR
BECOMES MORE MOIST AND BUOYANT NEAR SFC.
.EDWARDS.. 04/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
34827959 35847860 36627758 37027640 36917598 36137569
35647542 35207553 35067599 34587650 34727676 34327766
33847796 33847855 34057934 34697960
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