SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121018
NCZ000-VAZ000-121115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 AM CDT THU APR 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...SERN VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130...
VALID 121018Z - 121115Z
SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN REMAINING PORTIONS WW...ESPECIALLY E OF
WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE DELINEATED BELOW.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY AS OF 10Z -- OVER ONSLOW/PENDER COUNTIES NC --
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN ILM-NKT BY 11Z...EXCEPT
FOR COASTAL AREAS AROUND MHX AND CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE NRN PORTION OF
COMPLEX WILL PASS THROUGH 12Z. FARTHER N...ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE...MESSY/DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODE
HAS HINDERED SVR THREAT FOR ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS
E-CENTRAL/NERN NC TOWARD PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. SFC WINDS ARE
VEERING E OF I-95 NOW IN RESPONSE TO NEWD EJECTION OF STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACROSS DELMARVA REGION. AT
10Z...ASSOCIATED/PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM SUSSEX
COUNTY VA SWWD THROUGH GSB THEN SSWWD TO COASTAL NC/SC
BORDER...MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KT. W OF THAT WIND SHIFT
LINE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE EACH DIMINISH
MARKEDLY...LOWERING PROBABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. E OF THAT LINE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION STILL MAY
DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS POSSIBLE...THEREFORE WW
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF SOUNDS AND ADJACENT ERN COASTAL
PLAIN...UNTIL PASSAGE OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
.EDWARDS.. 04/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
33867851 35507774 36787703 37117653 37117589 36957599
36247579 35637544 35227553 35037603 34597651 34687669
34647704 34337764 33847796 33917829
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