SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140142
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...136...
VALID 140142Z - 140345Z
THROUGH 03-04Z...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TO BE: 1) WITH
PORTION OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT FROM
HOPKINS...RAINS AND VAN ZANDT COUNTIES TX EWD TO NEAR GGG. AND...2)
OVER CNTRL LA /NEAR AND NE OF POE/ AS STORMS FURTHER INTENSIFY ALONG
WARM FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
135...136...CONTINUES.
01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOWS N OF CRS AND NNE OF HDO WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS NRN LOW THROUGH THE HILL COUNTY
TO SE OF DRT. MEANWHILE...NRN MOST WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW N OF CRS TO NEAR SHV INTO CNTRL
MS N OF JAN. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT /DELINEATING THE RICHEST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS/ STRETCHED MORE SEWD FROM THIS NRN LOW TO N
OF LFK TO N OF POE INTO S-CNTRL LA.
CONVECTIVE LINE FORCED ALONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FEATURE HP
SUPERCELL TYPE COMPLEX ON NRN END OVER HUNT...HOPKINS AND RAINS
COUNTIES TX INVOF SURFACE LOW AND WARM/COLD FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT.
BASED ON CURRENT MOTION...THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME OR BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
STABLE...SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER FAR NERN TX. OTHER
STORMS IN PROGRESS ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY PROGRESS EWD AND ENCOUNTER
ENHANCED NEAR GROUND SHEAR INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONTS.
FARTHER TO THE SE...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS INVOF SRN MOST WARM FRONT OVER W-CNTRL LA
WITHIN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADOES /REF.
00Z SHV AND LCH SOUNDINGS/. ANY OF THESE STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED OVER E-CNTRL/SE TX INTO SWRN INTO CNTRL LA WILL HAVE A
HIGH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.
.MEAD.. 04/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
29809643 31429930 34189749 34029464 33359202 32209164
31129188 30219260 29999373
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