SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160755
NYZ000-PAZ000-161030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE PA...AND CNTRL/NERN NEW YORK STATE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 160755Z - 161030Z
HEAVY SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT HEAVIEST HOURLY RATES MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH SHORTLY.
CENTER OF DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NOW APPEARS TO BE INLAND OF NEW
JERSEY COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF FORT DIX...WHERE SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE ALREADY 3-4 MB LOWER THAN PROGGED BY MOST MODELS...AND
RAPID 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS PERSIST. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE REACHED WITHIN
NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE PRESSURES NEAR LOW CENTER LEVEL OFF
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...IN LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...ALREADY IS WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF LOW CENTER...ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. CONSEQUENTLY...SNOW RATES IN ROUGHLY 100
MI WIDE BAND EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION SEEM LIKELY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
MAY MAINTAIN RATES UP TO AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH
12-14Z...NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE WATERTOWN/SYRACUSE/ITHACA
AREAS...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW.
.KERR.. 04/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...
41557625 42127703 43347707 44147667 44737605 44807536
44437502 43527552 42197584 41777583 41597597 41557609
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