SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200016
SCZ000-200145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT THU APR 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 200016Z - 200145Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
HOUR...MAINLY NEAR AND N THROUGH E OF CAE...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 01-02Z.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM CAE TO
50 NE OF CAE AND TRACKING SEWD AT 20-25 KT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK...STRONG FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COMPACT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAVE SUPPORTED A
FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THUS FAR. MEANWHILE...SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL INLAND AND EXTENDED FROM 20 E VDI TO 25 ESE
AGS TO 35 E CAE TO 40 S FAY. TSTMS NEAR AND NE OF CAE ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO
THE E OF THE SEA BREEZE...AND ALSO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE E OF SEA BREEZE AND ASCENT WITH MID
LEVEL IMPULSE SUPPORTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE AN ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.
.PETERS.. 04/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
33238057 33638103 34018112 34178085 34338038 34157979
33787935 33277958 33038004
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