MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0520

ACUS11 KWNS 202348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202348
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-210145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD AND SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...

VALID 202348Z - 210145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152
CONTINUES.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
EWD FROM CENTRAL SD INTO W CENTRAL MN...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD THRU ND AND NWRN SD. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WHERE LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB NWD THRU
ERN SD. RUC SOUNDING VALID FOR 21/00Z INDICATED FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 49 KT SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 7.5C/KM.

LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY N OF THE WARM FRONT IS ELEVATED WHILE THE
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL SD IS MORE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH
THE ADVECTION COMING IN FROM EAST CENTRAL SD. THUS...THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

46629831 46629679 46309660 46019660 45679674 45599682
45469670 45379651 45339648 45329695 45299703 45299723
45139719 45139744 44539750 44539781 44179783 44189835
43489830 43499869 43399869 43179809 42989809 42859815
42859823 42949845 42969855 42970209 43130208 43150211
43420211 43500215 43650215 43660206 43770199 44520200
44530182 44580167 44580157 44620147 44690135 44730114
44990110 44990148 45470147 45450092 45490094 45460035
45570043 45640039 45690028 45720026 45900044 45940044
45939985 46279987 46279902 46629901

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