Saturday, April 21, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0530

ACUS11 KWNS 212350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212349
TXZ000-NMZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PECOS VALLEY PERMIAN BASIN OF SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212349Z - 220145Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER PECOS VALLEY AND
PERMIAN BASIN OF SWRN TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
01Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX /FROM NEAR WINK SWD TO NRN
BREWSTER COUNTY/. IN ADDITION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING WAS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
AS BOTH OF THESE CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP. THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN NM. DESPITE A
SUBSTANTIAL CINH LAYER ON THE 18Z MAF SOUNDING...ENOUGH MID LEVEL
COOLING IN THE 700 MB LAYER MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...0-6 KM OF 45-55 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM
1500-2500 J/KG/ INDICATE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES/LCL HEIGHTS INITIALLY...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND SUNSET MAY SUPPORT A SMALL PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADO/S
GIVEN A SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE.

.CROSBIE.. 04/21/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

32040158 32050306 31440321 30630333 30400333 30360216
30450069 31980064

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