Sunday, April 22, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0538

ACUS11 KWNS 221825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221825
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221825Z - 222000Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN IA AND PERHAPS
NWRN MO IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED
ROTATING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN IA...AND PERHAPS NWRN
MO...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TRANSITIONS ENEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WAS OCCURRING AS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF STORM ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING
WITHIN ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 162. LATEST OMAHA SOUNDING WAS
INDICATING ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ABOVE THE LFC. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT SOURCE
REGION APPEARS LIMITED...ADDITIONAL HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROVIDE FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL STORM SCALE STRETCHING AS UPPER
FORCING BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND BACKED
SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO A GREATER
CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

.CARBIN.. 04/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

39139474 39149389 39729328 41949417 43359495 43399600
42889655 41649637 40379550

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