SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222051
OKZ000-TXZ000-222315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ERN OK...NCENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222051Z - 222315Z
AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A
WW.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A VERY
SLOW MOVING DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE OK SSWWD TO
NEAR SHAWNEE OK TO NEAR JACKSBORO TX. AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE...INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F...RESULTING IN 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR IN THE 700 MB LAYER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW
OVER NEB...A WELL PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 600
MB /PER THE 18Z LAMONT SOUNDING/ EXISTS. THIS INVERSION AND
CONSEQUENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. THUS DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A WW
IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
.CROSBIE.. 04/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33179659 36649491 36949564 36749616 36349644 34699739
33379819 33069751
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