Monday, April 23, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0544

ACUS11 KWNS 231936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231936
COZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231936Z - 232130Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
ERN CO IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...
ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY SOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP INVOF OF LEE LOW LOCATED JUST SE OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.
THE 18Z DEN SOUNDING SHOWED A MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING AND
AROUND 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR DEN SWWD
TOWARDS LAA...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEE
LOW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE BETWEEN DEN AND COS AS A SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTENSIFYING THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
WILL AID IN GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION /DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S/ INTO THE AREA TOWARDS AND AFTER 00Z. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TORNADOS GIVEN THE AMT OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

.CROSBIE.. 04/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38760465 39760482 40290478 40740412 40660346 40160268
39080211 38600205 38220214 37860247 37670278 37760347
38320410

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