SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232240
TXZ000-240045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232240Z - 240045Z
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF HIGH THETAE AIR HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO REGION OF NRN COAHUILA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UNDER
BREAK IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH IS SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SW TX...AND WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL/FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION
OF BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG SRN PORTION OF
DRYLINE...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 22Z OVER EXTREME WRN CROCKETT...ERN
PECOS AND TERRELL COUNTIES. MAIN THREAT IS COMBINATION OF DAMAGING
HAIL AND SVR GUSTS.
ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION ALSO MAY BECOME SEEDED BY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS AND/OR NEARBY STORMS...LEADING TO MESSY MIXED MODES INCLUDING
HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS...SPLITTING STORM POTENTIAL...AND ALSO
SMALL/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONG MID/UPPER JET WINDS AHEAD OF
EJECTING MEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR...I.E. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. INITIAL WEAKNESSES IN
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EVIDENT BECAUSE OF AREAS OF 10 KT FLOW
BETWEEN 1-2 KM AGL...EVIDENT IN DFX VWP AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD ENLARGE AFTER DARK FOR ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AS LLJ STRENGTHENS. 70 DEG F SFC DEW POINT
AT UVA AWOS SITE IS BOGUS...HOWEVER MID-UPPER 60S F FARTHER E AND S
ARE NOT...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG.
.EDWARDS.. 04/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
28280030 28830055 29490113 29760141 29770163 29830217
30930190 30439921 28299941
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