SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251236
LAZ000-TXZ000-251400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...
VALID 251236Z - 251400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...NAMELY SRN PORTION.
WHILE LEADING MCS HAS GENERALLY MOVED E INTO WRN/CNTRL LA...BANDS OF
TSTMS ORIENTED IN SW-NE FASHION HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR FROM DEWITT TO LIVE OAK COUNTIES AND HARRIS TO WHARTON
COUNTIES. 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH AN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A PRONOUNCED CAP
WAS STILL OBSERVED AROUND 750 MB. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE MECHANISM FORCING THIS MORE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE WEAKENING MCS COLD
POOL OR ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SAMPLED BY THE CRP SOUNDING.
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ROOT
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
.MEAD.. 04/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
31109518 31259444 31329327 29859370 29849308 29319322
28979447 28229557 27899627 27519688 27999763 28189806
28679824 29389681 29859709
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