SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290026
TXZ000-NMZ000-290200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SW NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290026Z - 290200Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER SW NM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL. THE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO SW NM WITH
A THERMAL AXIS LOCATED IN THE SAME AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND ARE LIKELY
BEING AIDED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME EVIDENT ON THE EL PASO TX 00Z
SOUNDING. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG WEST OF THE EL PASO AREA AN THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES
NWD INTO SW NM AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET CENTER...SOME
WEAKENING MAY OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THIS FACTOR...ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THIS EVENING ACROSS SW NM.
.BROYLES.. 04/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...
31490743 31350851 31700902 32480899 32830831 33070704
32550642 31730664
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