SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300025
TXZ000-NMZ000-300130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...
VALID 300025Z - 300130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER PECOS VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH
OF THE BIG BEND REGION. MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
LARGE HAIL AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS UPPER
LOW NEAR ELP DRIFTS EASTWARD AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE RISK AREA. 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATES THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE
HAIL /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS/ IF
STORMS CAN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH TX. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WITH THESE IDEAS IN MIND...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 01Z
TO REPLACE WW 198...AND TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
.HART.. 04/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
29470113 29730143 29770186 29870229 29750258 29540279
29170293 28980315 29180369 29440420 29800462 30240474
30870494 31990491 32010280 31660275 31660127 31050129
31080014 30270016 30290069 29110071
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