SWODY1
SPC AC 040551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB...ERN
CO...MUCH OF KS...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SWRN TX INTO SD...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...
..POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS UPPER LOW REDEVELOPS INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION LATE. THIS LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPS OVER SERN CO IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING JET MAX.
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SCNTRL NEB
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK.
EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THE WARM SECTOR IS
MOISTENING NICELY WITH SFC DEW POINTS AOA 60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS...WITH NEAR 70F INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AS LOWER MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND LLJ STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...NEAR 70F DEW POINTS SHOULD EASILY SPREAD
INTO OK...WITH MID-UPPER 60S INTO THE DRYLINE OVER KS...NWD INTO
SCNTRL NEB. GIVEN THIS MARKED INCREASE IN MOISTURE MDT-HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACROSS MOST
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF KS...HIGHER THAN MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SFC HEATING ALONG/WEST OF THE
DRYLINE OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WILL
CERTAINLY REMOVE ANY INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION. IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME FROM SWRN KS...SWD INTO SWRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ONLY INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY
MORE CONCENTRATED ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
INTO NEB/NRN KS WHERE DEEP ELY FLOW AND VERY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
TURNING WILL ENHANCE HELICITY FOR TORNADOES. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
WITHIN HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE LARGE SCALE
FORCING/ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER DARK. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE
SHOULD BE THE INITIAL INSTIGATOR FOR SUPERCELLS...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER SPEED
MAX EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THAT TIME WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
MUCH OF NEB/SD. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY HIGH INSTABILITY
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
..CENTRAL GULF STATES...
LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS MS/LA SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AT THE LATEST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY
BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
.DARROW/TAYLOR.. 05/04/2007
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