SWODY1
SPC AC 080557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
SWRN TX...
..CNTRL/SWRN TX...
SRN PART OF THE PERSISTENT WRN STATES TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND BEGIN SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST TUE/TUE NIGHT. A SUBTLE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER W TX...WILL LIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN EARLY
TUE. IN ITS WAKE...A FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION
TUE MORNING. REMNANT INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL EXIST NEWD FROM
THERE INTO NCNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MCS ACTIVITY HAS LEFT A COMPLICATED ARRAY OF BOUNDARIES AND
ALSO NEUTRALIZED LAPSE RATES ALOFT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SWRN TX
DURING THE PAST 24-HRS. GIVEN THAT UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS YET TO EJECT
NEWD...PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE/MAINTAIN AN
ELY LOW-LEVEL FETCH OF MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH.
STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VLY WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEAT LOW OVER NERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
MOIST ELY FLOW FROM SCNTRL TX WWD. POCKETS OF HEATING/MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD ALSO FORM IN THE BIG BEND...STOCKTON PLATEAU
REGIONS. TSTMS WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR THESE REGIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VLY. OTHERWISE...STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NCNTRL
TX...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS SCENARIO.
THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN...40-50 KTS OF SWLY H5
FLOW ATOP THE ELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE. MOST
RIGOROUS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LAUNCH OFF THE MEXICAN AND SWRN TX
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF
SWRN/SCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.
..ARKLATEX REGION NWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR
ANOTHER FOCUSED ZONE OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE FROM IL SWWD ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF AR AND LA. AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SFC HEATING AND MLCAPES WILL RANGE 1500-2000
J/KG. THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER BELT OF SWLY
FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLD HAIL AND PERHAPS HIGH WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A DECREASING TREND
00-03Z.
.RACY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2007
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