SWODY1
SPC AC 141253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY
SW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. MAIN
BELT OF THE WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HI PLNS ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
PAC NW/SW CANADA. MAIN IMPULSE OF INTEREST IS NOW OVER CNTRL MT.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PLNS TODAY...BEFORE
TURNING E/NE TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN LARGER SCALE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS OVER THE UPR GRT
LKS.
AT LWR LEVELS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MT TROUGH IS CONSOLIDATING
ATTM NEAR FAR. THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE ENE INTO UPR MI LATER TODAY
AND REACH GEORGIAN BAY EARLY TUESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH A LBB/GAG/MKC/MKE AXIS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
..UPR GRT LKS SW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL RCKYS...
DEEP...MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY AS SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO MT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ELONGATES E/NE ACROSS REGION. WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FREE
OF THICK CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING/STEEPENING OF LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL COMPENSATE FOR SEASONABLY MODEST
MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F/ TO BOOST
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN
PARTS OF NEB/SD NEWD INTO PARTS OF MN/WI AND UPR MI.
SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF WEAK ASCENT FROM
CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL MN. THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT...LIKELY
WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS OVER ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN
BY MID AFTERNOON.
COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW...
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LINEAR FORCING OF FRONT
SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO
A BOW MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND OVER THE UPR MS VLY. FARTHER
NE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH HEATING ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN
WI/UPR MI. STRONGER DEEP SHEAR IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH BACKED
NEAR-SFC FLOW ALONG FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND.
FARTHER SW...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER
NEB/KS/NE CO AND SRN WY. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
UPLIFT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD
CREATE SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND IN NEB/NW KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SVR. CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS MAY ALSO EVOLVE FROM DIURNAL STORMS FORMING INVOF STALLING
FRONT OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS.
..SRN PLNS TO GULF CST...
STRONG HEATING OF FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE S
CNTRL STATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MUCAPE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL/ERN OK E TX INTO LA/MS.
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. BUT DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SCTD PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR
WET MICROBURSTS.
..WRN/SW FL...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER S FL...WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF COOL AIR
PERSISTS ALOFT. DEEP ELY CURRENT SHOULD FAVOR SW PART OF STATE FOR
POSSIBLE PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND.
.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/14/2007
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