SWODY1
SPC AC 261643
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI/EASTERN
IA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN CO...
..MN/WI/IA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A FEATURES A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ND. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN BORDER...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ARCING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA INTO
EASTERN CO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHERN IA/NORTHERN IL INTO MN/WI.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MODEST NATURE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/ESPECIALLY WITH NORTH EXTENT/ COMPLICATES THE FORECAST DETAILS.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO IA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50 KT -- HIGHEST NORTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI -- WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY RISKS...HOWEVER A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
EASTERN MN/WI ALONG THE WARM FRONT PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION.
..EASTERN CO...
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CO/NORTHERN KS. ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER /30-35 KT AND GREATER NORTH OF
I-70/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
..MUCH OF KS/NORTHWEST MO/FAR NORTHWEST OK/TX PANHANDLE...
STRONG/A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THIS CORRIDOR.
..EASTERN NM...
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED AND OF SHORT DURATION.
.GUYER/HART.. 05/26/2007
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