SWODY1
SPC AC 261958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL CO...
..UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...SFC HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER ECNTRL MN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RUC IDENTIFIES A STRONG VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR NE
IA WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
IA AND NRN IL WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THIS AREA.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER
ERN SD AND WRN MN. THE JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER SMALLER JET FEATURE IS IDENTIFIED OVER
NE IA. AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
EXIST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG ON WSR-88D VWPS WITH
STRONG VEERING BELOW 1 KM AND ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED SHEAR
FOR TORNADOES. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
WITH ACROSS WRN WI...FAR SE MN AND FAR NE IA. AN ISOLATED HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.
..ERN CO...
A BROAD WLY FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND AN
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE
PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER NORTH OF DENVER CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
..ERN NM/WEST TX...
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL NM AND ONE LOCATED IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS IN A RELATIVELY
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FOR
A SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL BUT THE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT
MARGINAL.
.BROYLES.. 05/26/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment