SWODY1
SPC AC 291610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....
..SYNOPSIS...
MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXES WILL MOVE EWD ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM NRN UT THROUGH CO INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN
KS. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER E CENTRAL ND WITH A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SSWWD INTO SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS...THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT WWD ACROSS NRN NM AND
NRN AZ. AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW IS OVER SERN CO WITH A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN AND S CENTRAL NM. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH/MCV OVER N CENTRAL TX AND STRONG RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
MODELS ARE TRYING TO FOCUS ON THE AREA OF ERN CO INTO WRN KS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGHOUT THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWING 850 MB DEW POINTS
GENERALLY 10-14 DEG C FROM TX INTO KS/NEB INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL JET IS 35-40 KT FROM CENTRAL OK NWD INTO E CENTRAL MN WITH
MAIN THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD THROUGH THE DEN
REGION AND SRN UT. RAOB DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS MODERATE WITH A 50-55 KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB ACROSS NERN NV THEN
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS PROJECT THAT THIS
JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD
OVER W CENTRAL CO ENHANCING UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
ERN CO INTO WRN KS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
SWRN KS WHERE MODELS FORECAST MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG BY THIS
EVENING. WITH EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING TOWARDS E
CENTRAL CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KT WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY
THIS EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO.
LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BE BIMODAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...AND A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SWRN NEB SWWD TOWARDS OR SOUTH OF
THE DEN AREA WHERE UPSLOPE MAY ALSO ENHANCE FORCING. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS GIVEN THAT THE
ACTIVITY MAY WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SRN
PARTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION.
BUT...SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF CO AND MOVE
INTO SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
..UPPER MS VALLEY...
ONCE AGAIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MN. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
FOR TODAY WITH MUCAPE 1000-1200 J/KG. VERY MOIST PROFILES ARE SHOWN
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA...THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT HERE MAY BE STRONG WET MICROBURSTS.
.MCCARTHY.. 05/29/2007
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